Workshop EC 1,  Monday 19 June 16.00 - 17.30

Is the trade ready for the future

Rodney Tolley, CAST - The Centre for Alternative and Sustainable Transport, Staffordshire University Les Lumsdon Cycling in 21st Century Europe: what the experts forecast There is a lack of information on cycling futures, yet we need to know the future to help us plan better for it. The paper reports on a research project about the opinions of the future of cycling held by recognised experts associated with cycle planning, manufacture and advocacy across Europe. It will allow those involved in cycling to evaluate the broader trends in relation to their own town or country. The authors use the Delphi method, a qualitative technique well used in business forecasting, to achieve an expert group consensus about the future of cycling. The technique involves four stages: 1. The selection of experts in the field 2. The posing of questions about the future of cycling (for example, regarding the sales, or use of bicycles) to all members of the panel 3. The aggregate and individual responses are fed back to each panel member for further comment or adjustment. 4. The second round of forecasts is then combined into one probability distribution for each variable being measured. Some of the key areas being investigated are: - The sales of bicycles - The distance and number of cycle trips - The use of bicycles for recreational purposes - The attitudes of municipalities towards cycling. The result will be a definitive statement about the future of cycling in Europe.

Michael Oxer, Executive Officer, Bicycle Industries & Traders Association Inc.) The Bicycle Industry: Local Provider. Global Partner? In some countries the bicycle industry is emerging as a powerful ally in pro-cycling actions. In too many countries however the bicycle industry is aloof from the strivings of bicycle advocates. The bicycle industry has internal struggles which polarize around a number of issues and examples include anti-dumping actions by EU countries against Asian producers, fragmentation of bicycle styles. etc. While we have glaring examples of bicycle use being given overtly hostile treatment  the really depressing aspect for advocates is that so little potentially very powerful action is seen from the bicycle industry. Several nations do have industry actions which are building significant alliances and partnerships with advocacy organizations with the two fold benefit of furthering campaign aims while also building the commercial sector. A number of examples are given. It is at the third or global level that the real power which can be generated by coalitions of major industry companies and national industry and advocacy bodies might be realized. To achieve progress it will be necessary for enough companies to incorporate a degree of non-commercial thinking into the prevailing culture of commercial competition for much bigger objectives. Two conditions seem to be essential for gathering industry participation into advocacy actions. The first is what might be called the 'grand plan' scenario, in one word, infrastructure. The second is the presence of a 'champion' who also exercises powerful influence within the prevailing power structures which determine allocations of resources. In conclusion, four actions are suggested.

David Garfield, UK “Is the Trade Ready for the Future?” Position paper Is the trade ready for the future? My simple answer is “I doubt it!”